Introduction. The article is devoted to the analysis of methods for determining personnel needs in the regions, determining the features of various approaches to personnel forecasting in order to identify the theoretical and conceptual foundations of predictive modeling of the need for pedagogical personnel in regional general education systems. The paper presents the features of the main methods and principles of forecasting, shows the possibilities of their application for forecasting personnel needs in the field of education. The prerequisites for the development of a model for predicting the regional need for teaching staff as an important condition for the development of the general education system are identified.

Materials and Methods. In accordance with this goal, the following methods are used: analysis of scientific and regulatory sources, comparison of characteristics and mechanisms of predictive tools, generalization of approaches to the processes of forecasting staffing. The initial methodological setting of the study was the assumption that the existing approaches to personnel forecasting in various areas of the labor market contain invariant conceptual elements that are of fundamental importance for the construction and justification of the predictive model of staffing of the regional school system.

Results. A review of the main approaches to forecasting revealed a problematic situation of a conceptual and methodological nature in the processes of forecasting the personnel need for pedagogical personnel. The study presents four groups of contradictions that are the core of the problems of regional prognostics in the field of staffing of general education. Based on the analysis, the authors determine the main prerequisites for the development of a predictive model of the regional need for teaching staff and identify conceptual elements by correlating them with the key characteristics of the personnel need of general education in teaching staff, which allows us to expand the understanding of both the predictive model itself and the basic procedures for its construction and practical implementation.

Discussion. The generalization of the analytical material of the work revealed significant differences in methods and approaches to modeling the processes of personnel forecasting by various indicators: initial conceptual ideas, principles and criteria, as well as by field of application (economic sector, region, etc.), applied input (initial) information, etc. It is important to note that forecasting of personnel needs often does not take into account the specifics of the economic sector, demographic characteristics of the region, possible personnel rotations. In addition, in a situation of socio-economic turbulence, forecast models calculate indicators of personnel needs for a short-term period. It should also be noted that the initial data for calculation procedures in predictive modeling are most often statistics, accounting documentation, subjective opinions of individual specialists, creating risks of inaccuracy or incompleteness of information.

Conclusion. An analytical review of approaches to forecasting personnel needs was carried out from the standpoint of analyzing methods for forecasting personnel needs in regulatory legal acts; methods for forecasting personnel needs in various sectors of the economy; methods for forecasting the needs of general education in teaching staff in the context of the region. The analytical material of the study is the justification of the methodological basis for the continuation of the development of a predictive model of the regional need for teaching staff, followed by instrumental elaboration of predictive modeling procedures. The development of a methodological basis for creating a model for forecasting personnel needs in the field of general education is presented on the basis of taking into account socio-cultural, demographic, economic factors, as well as normative, conceptual and structural-content changes in the system of higher and secondary pedagogical education.

The necessity of developing a predictive model of the regional need for teaching staff, taking into account:

Key integral characteristics of forecasting the regional system of providing general education with teaching staff: «stability of the general education staff» and «effectiveness of the regional system of general education staffing»;

Principles, criteria and indicators of forecasting with a clear focus on a holistic description of the object of forecasting in the industry specifics of the field of education and a systematic description of the n-dimensional space that determines the development of this object;

Typology, composition and weight values of possible determinations of the regional system of providing educational institutions with teaching staff to perform predictive procedures in the medium term;

The possibility of including conceptual elements in the variational series of dependencies in order to predict the regional needs of school education in teaching staff; 

Indicators of the development of the regional system of staffing of general education, allowing for a comparative analysis of the staffing of school education and the results of educational policy in different regions;

The potential of digital technologies for automating procedures for forecasting the staffing of pedagogical personnel of school education.

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